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The most important event in Indian Telecom is the imminent deregulation of domestic and international long distance services which are to be deregulated completely and Internet Service Providers (ISPs) to be allowed free rein. The target is to increase number of Inernet users to about 1.5~2 million. This means handling 56 Giga Bytes per second (GBPS) at full load. The strategy for long term planning envisaged by DoT is based on a terrestrial OFC network, dedicated by requirements of terrain and special users. DoT aims to convert 100 percent of the existing mechanical telephone exchange into electronic exchanges, of which the entire transmission will be through the digital system using OFCs. DoT plans to opticalise entire transmission by 2007.

Currently, majority of Aksh's business is from the DoT. It also executes export orders by participating in tenders overseas and orders from private operators such as Spectranet, Bharti Telenet, etc. The non-DoT business forms 30% of the total turnover. Efforts are on to increase this percentage to 50% of the total by diversifying the customer base.

Since, for developing economies, the rate of growth of Telecom sector is 2.5~3 times their GDP growth, it is expected that the demand for OFC would grow by not less than 20-25%, considering average annual growth rate of GDP of 7% for India over the next 5 years.

As in other matured industries, 2-3 large and efficient players would have a major share of the market. Since AKSH has been an early entrant and a leader, with special operating economies because of control over input costs, more specifically over cost of Optic Fiber and FRP rod, together accounting for appx. 66% of Optical Fibre Cable cost, AKSH would be the undisputed market leader.

 

GLOBAL OUTLOOK
Forecast for global demand for Optic Fibre Cable for the next few years is as under :-


Worldwide Installations of Cabled Fibre (million fibre-km)

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
110 140 160 200 240 290

 

"The above estimates are of KMI, USA., who predict the global markets to grow by 15.2% p.a., with demand growth from third world countries estimated to be 2.5 ~ 3 times the demand growth from the developed world, primarily because the developing nations are not at near-saturation telephone density, which is the case with the developed market."

 

 

Worldwide Deployment of Cabled Fibre by Application (000s of F-km)

Application/Year 2001 2002 2004
Multimode 3467 4144 6161
Other 4120 4806 8288
Cable TV 7771 8145 9822
Feeder/Local 28113 33811 57803
Long Haul 30094 25612 21307
India Long Distance 1200 2000 6000

Aksh already has an established presence in United States. It is also exporting to UK, Indonesia, Thailand, Taiwan, Israel and Jordan. Efforts are on to enter the neighbouring high-growth telecom markets. Aksh has signed an export contract for US$172 million for cables to USA to be supplied over the next three years. There are several other potential negotiations in progress, which includes possible supplies to neighbouring countries, like China. Few key orders from Fortune 500 companies for supply of cables as OEM products are also expected shortly. The product is being used for LAN Networking, Cable TV and Telecom. The foreign exchange earnings through exports amounted to Rs. 24.07 crores as against Rs. 4.09 crores in the previous year representing an increase of 488% over last year.In terms of exports, over the next three years, the company expects total exports to be approx. $ 200 million.